Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. Plus 5 to minus 28 among moderates (the second sharpest decline). Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. Democratic President Joe Biden was also underwater in the latest poll, with just 40% approving of him and 57% disapproving. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Have questions? Doug Jones (36) The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. Doing this for the Senate, we get the following table of senators with the best and worst statewide brands: Senators net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. But partisanship isnt the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senators popularity can still make a difference. But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. By this time in the 2016 election cycle, Johnsons ratings had already begun to improve, from minus 11 in the fall of 2015 to minus 4 in February of 2016 to plus 1 in March of 2016. These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 2:25pm. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Dan McKees mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for the office for the first time (he became governor only because he was the lieutenant governor when the old governor resigned), the pro-Republican national mood and Rhode Islands elasticity. Can we marry dogs? Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their partys presidential ticket. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maines light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. More money is expected to flow into the race as the candidates barrel toward the November general election. Democratic Lt. Gov. and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. Need to report an error? Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of . Hey NieWiederKrieg, I think a part of your brain must be dead. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. Last month, he opposed federal funds to help the American microchip industry compete against China, indicating that he did not want to "have government picking the winners and losers.". Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. January 25, 2022 at 12:01 am ET. Senator Ron Johnson's . A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2.6 points (45.4 percent to 42.8 percent). Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Some recent surveys put his approval at 35%, while a March Marquette University Law School poll found him at just 33% support. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. Almost 40% of voters six years ago didnt know Johnson or had no opinion of him, compared with around20% today. I'm not a polarizing figure at all. What is Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Daniel Kelly's record on abortion? A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. He ran behind the other three, with 44% versus 46% for Barnes, 43% versus 45% for Godlewski and 43% versus 44% for Nelson. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. Ron Johnson Approval Rating. As they have for years, three northeastern, blue-state Republicans lead the way: Govs. Independent Sens. In other words, compared with a similar low point in the previous election cycle, Johnson is doing better with his best groups and worse with his worst groups. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. But as Franklin notes, Johnsons growing salience for these voters could help Democratic turnout. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. Buy It Now. That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. All rights reserved. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. Results from the most recent update. Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. . Trump is quite unpopular here. A trio of red-state Democrats Kentuckys Andy Beshear, Kansass Laura Kelly and Louisianas John Bel Edwards all have PARGs between +31 and +51 as well. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. Tony Evers, who is down from 50% to 45%. PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. Have you been living under a rock? ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice.
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