Im not even sure what direction were going.. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. Two states have announced recounts. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. At least Biden is honest, he said. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. On . Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. I would never vote any other way. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Please read our comments policy before commenting. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. I hope.. They run the gamut from. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. I quit voting once out of the union.. He isnt so sure about Biden. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. He pissed off a lot of people. I think he is more for giving to the people.. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. They need to take care of the older people here. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. I just want Trump in. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. That is a very good thing to have. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. I dont listen to the news. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. But thats not the picture I look at. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Its gone, Jacobs said. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Republican Gov. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Im not happy with either party. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Youre not getting anybody perfect. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Theyre scared. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. He didnt vote in 2016 either. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. He says hell vote for Trump. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. I think thats what the world needed. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government.
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